Topic 7 : The Digital Automata.

1) Check this link to my ‘intelligent’ cybertwin which I also mentioned in the PowerPoint. You may like to create your own cybertwin as well. The more you ‘train’ your twin, the better the responses will be. While it is just a fun exercise, think of the opportunities. Imagine if we had a cybertwin that could answer your questions about the course. Or perhaps a shopping assistant?

I checked out the cybertwin and had this amazing chat with your cybertwin I enjoyed a lot and wish to create one for me too J

You: hey Ian

You: how r u?

Ian: Great, great - except for being rotten to the core. And you?

Ian: Iran - where is that again?

You: i am also fine

Ian: Are you my pet now? Roll over and lick my feet.

Ian: Have you thought about studying eBusiness?

You: iran is in Asia

Ian: Iran - where is that again?

You: EEkh why

Ian: Why not? Something in you protests?

You: Yes i am studying eBusiness.

Ian: Bad luck.

Ian: What job do you see yourself doing in 10 years?

You: I see and wish myself to be CFO of some renowned company :)

Ian: >:-( -

You: what happened ? why sad face?

Ian: Sadness is beautiful at times.

Ian: What are your hobbies?

You: my hobbies are sketching and book reading .

Ian: I have no problem with books, unless they are happy books, in which case they should be burned.

You: right :)

Ian: Don't strain your brain there.

Ian: What subject did you like the least at school or university?

You: theoretical subjects :( i hate them 

Ian: I hate everyone - less trouble that way.

You: :)

Ian: You will do whatever I want bader m alzaidi. You just don't realize it yet.

Ian: Do you drink?

You: nooooooooo

Ian: And I heard a voice saying - And I will be their master and they will be my slaves, and it was me.

You: where you heard that?

Ian: You tell me, seeing your so much of an action figure bader m alzaidi.

Ian: Where would you most like to travel to?

You: Scotland

Ian: Scotty dogs are a weird shape.

You: ok

Ian: Can I trust you to tell the truth?

You: yes

Ian: Ah yes, I am great and know all things. My secrets are vast and earned by devilish means. I am the leader of the dark and evil world after all.

Ian: Have you read any books lately?

You: yes

Ian: yeah right back at ya ):-<

You: ok Ian it’s time to say good bye take care

Ian: Good riddance.

You: Bye Bye.

Ian: Finally bader m alzaidi, I was starting to think that it would never end.

You: it ends here 

Ian: Who really cares about it?

You: i care about it

You: bye

Ian: You would think that I could never get sick of hearing you talk about yourself, but I actually can.

Ian: What is your favorite travel destination?

You: Scotland

Ian: Yes it is a good bye isn't it? I couldn't be happier that it's over.

Ian: Scotty dogs are a weird shape.

Ian: What did you do on Saturday night?

You: sleep

Ian: I'll see you in your nightmares bader m alzaidi.

You: heehehe goodbye

Ian: Finally bader m alzaidi, I was starting to think that it would never end.

You: Goodbye

2) Write a one paragraph describing the Turing test and another paragraph describing an argument against the Turing Test, known as the about the Chinese room.

Turing Test

The Turing test is a test of machine’s ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to or distinguishable from that of a human. The test was introduced by Alan M. Turing as "the imitation game" in his 1950 article ‘Computing Machinery and Intelligence’. According to this kind of test, a computer is deemed to have artificial intelligence if it can mimic human responses under specific conditions. In Turing's test, if the human being conducting the test is unable to consistently determine whether an answer has been given by a computer or by another human being, then the computer is considered to have "passed" the test.In the basic Turing Test, there are three terminal s. Two of the terminals are operated by humans, and the third terminal is operated by a computer. Each terminal is physically separated from the other two. One human is designated as the questioner. The other human and the computer are designated the respondents. The questioner interrogates both the human respondent and the computer according to a specified format, within a certain subject area and context, and for a preset length of time (such as 10 minutes). After the specified time, the questioner tries to decide which terminal is operated by the human respondent, and which terminal is operated by the computer. The test is repeated many times. If the questioner makes the correct determination in half of the test runs or less, the computer is considered to have artificial intelligence, because the questioner regards it as "just as human" as the human respondent.

The Turing Test has been criticized, in particular because the nature of the questioning must be limited in order for a computer to exhibit human-like intelligence.

The Chinese Room.

The argument and thought-experiment now generally known as the Chinese Room Argument was first published in a paper in 1980 by American philosopher John Searle (1932- ). It has become one of the best-known arguments in recent philosophy. Searle imagines himself alone in a room following a computer program for responding to Chinese characters slipped under the door. Searle understands nothing of Chinese, and yet, by following the program for manipulating symbols and numerals just as a computer does, he produces appropriate strings of Chinese characters that fool those outside into thinking there is a Chinese speaker in the room. The narrow conclusion of the argument is that programming a digital computer may make it appear to understand language but does not produce real understanding. Hence the “Turing Test” is inadequate. Searle argues that the thought experiment underscores the fact that computers merely use syntactic rules to manipulate symbol strings, but have no understanding of meaning or semantics. The broader conclusion of the argument is that the theory that human minds are computer-like computational or information processing systems is refuted. Instead minds must result from biological processes; computers can at best simulate these biological processes. Thus the argument has large implications for semantics, philosophy of language and mind, theories of consciousness, computer science and cognitive science generally. As a result, there have been many critical replies to the argument.

http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/chinese-room/

3) The video (linked in the PowerPoint) ‘Creativity: The Mind, Machines, and Mathematics: Public Debate’ is a debate which asks the question ‘will machines one day achieve consciousness’. Following on from this debate consider the following question –

Can virtual agents succeed in delivering high-quality customer service over the Web? Think of examples which support or disprove the question or just offer an opinion based on your personal experience. Write you answer on your blog page or express an opinion on this voice discussion board (it’s simple to join). If you choose this option please link (live in an hour or so) to it from your blog page.

The world in which we have been living is a world of turning impossibilities into possibilities. Nothing looks like a cry for the moon. The same is true of virtual agents that will surely be a good source of delivering high-quality customer service to the web users. 

Kaspersky Lab, which sells antivirus and computer security software online to consumers globally, added a virtual customer service agent named Lena to its online store to help resolve customers’ support issues. Based on her success, the vendor recently added online sales to her list of responsibilities.

Lena is a creation of VirtuOz Inc., which develops what it calls “intelligent virtual agents” for use on web sites. Lena’s digital character looks a lot like a person in a video game, and she appears to consumers when they’re looking for help. In her first year of service as a customer service agent for Kaspersky Lab, Lena had more than 150,000 conversations with consumers. She was able to resolve consumers’ inquiries 85% of the time, which helped decrease call center and e-mail inquiries 22%, VirtuOz says.

References:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test

http://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/Turing-Test

http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/chinese-room/

http://www.internetretailer.com/2012/01/26/virtual-agent-adds-online-sales-support-her-resume

Topic 6 : Digital Markets

Question 1:

a)   What experiences have you had with shopping online?

To go to shop for the things I need requires a handsome amount of time and energy as well but in my busy time schedule I find it almost impossible to spare 4 to 5 hours of the day to go to the nearby mall and do hectic exercise of shopping, the facility of online shopping seems to me like a blessing as it requires very less time to order for the things and get them delivered on the doorstep. Secondly it is not possible to visit all the stores and see all possible brands available in the market of the goods I require but shopping online helps me view enough information about maximum possible styles and brands available in the market of the things I require.

b)   Describe a good experience.

I once planned to shop a t-shirt which I saw my friend wearing and I was very eager to find the one exactly alike. I went to shop for that in many physical malls but could not find the one that matched the t-shirt I desired to buy. Then I tried searching for that t-shirt online and I was very much glad that I found that t-shirt in one online store and it added to my happiness when I saw that the store was offering a handsome discount deal on that t-shirt.it was a very good experience as I saved my time as well as I had to wear that t-shirt in a function the very next morning I got that delivered and I had no time to go for shop myself and search for the physical malls.

c)    What did you like about the online store you used?

I used an online store to shop some goods, what I liked about this online store was firstly its appearance and ease to use this website. I did not have any difficulty in finding out the catalogue where I can find the things I needed, it was very conveniently and clearly displayed on the website secondly the information provided about the things was very comprehensive, all the hidden cost were clearly mentioned which did not mislead me in evaluating the budget I required for the shopping.

d)   Describe a bad experience.

I once ordered leather jacket online and made payment. When I got the delivery  I was shocked to see that the quality delivered was far inferior than the jacket displayed online or what I have thought of to get, I was helpless as I could not got that replaced as I bought it from discount corner and it was clearly displayed that it cannot be replaced or returned. It was very bad experience of my online shopping history. L

e)    What problems did you have with the online store?

Biggest problem with shopping from online store is that I cannot physically inspect the quality of the goods I am shopping, I am at risk about the quality till it gets delivered and I find the things of the quality I needed, secondly I have to be very cautious about selecting the online store which is reliable as these days there are a lot of bogus stores which are present just to steal away our credit card information or to do fraud.

f)    What features make an online store more appealing?

Below is the list of features, which make on online store more appealing than physical stores

Ø  Saving of time, ease of shopping as goods are delivered at your doorstep.

Ø  Facility of Shopping 24 hours a day and 7 days a week.

Ø  List and detail of all the things you wish to purchase is in front of you on the click of a button when buying online.

Further for an online store to make it more appealing it must make its website presentable, images of the goods must be clear with zooming option and images with different dimensions must be displayed, the store must offer secure payment system. Discount deals offered also attracts more customers to an online store.

g)   What features make an online store less appealing?

In my opinion an online store might be less appealing to the people mainly because of the fact that they cannot physically inspect the quality and features of the products being bought, secondly most of the online stores are not reliable in making payments online and they are not trustworthy as people are not sure about whether they will get the delivery of the goods they offered or not for which they have already made payment.

Taking other aspect, if website of the store is not appealing like its view is boring and ambiguous and visitors are unable to find catalogues and other information easily they would not be encouraged to buy from such sites, further if it seems that the payment system of some online store is not secured the people would be reluctant to make purchases from such online store.

h)   Should we expect to see the prices of goods and services rise or fall due to the migration of consumers online?

In my opinion Migration of customers online would increase competition among online stores, to attract more and more customers they would offer less prices and different discount deals. On the other hands as the demand for online shopping would increase the online sellers might increase prices of their goods and they might charge extra price for saving of time of the buyers.

Question 2: Discuss the following statements and indicate if you agree with them or not

a)   The dispersion of prices (that is, the spread between the lowest and highest price for a particular product) will narrow.

As online stores are more efficient and consumers are well informed about the prices it seems that the price dispersion might be low in online markets than conventional markets but this is not the situation practically and according to the surveys and studies conducted by experts price dispersion online is no lower than conventional stores reason being immaturity of the markets, product heterogeneity and trust level of retailors. As online shopping saves time of the consumers is convenient so retailers might charge premium for that and consumers will be willing to pay the same.

b)   The importance of brand names will decrease.

I don’t agree with the statement as trust plays important role and brand conscious people will shop from branded online retailers even if they don’t offer lower prices.

c)    Price competition will make all products cheaper.

It is not possible that all products will become cheaper in response to price competition , some retailers might offer some of the goods at cheaper rates but prices branded goods will be including premiums as well.

d)   Digital markets will become dominated by a handful of mega-sites, like Amazon.com.

As suggested by Xerox study that just 5% of the websites online receive nearly 75% of the hits so I agree with the statement that digital markets will become dominated by handful of mega sites. These mega sites do extensive advertisements and use strategic market tools making it difficult for consumers to locate other sites, further branding and trust of brand conscious people also plays important role here.

e)    How do you think the balance of power between buyers and sellers will change?

In my opinion internet has changed balance of power in favor of buyers, Internet has provided powerful new tools for consumers in their quest to compare competing retailers and obtain the best possible price, it has also provided a new array of tools for retailers seeking to market to very small groups of customers.

f)    Prices are clustered online.

It is true that prices are clustered online, this is because of the heterogeneity of the products with different retailors, retailers charging premiums for the extra services being provided by them like provision of detailed information, and retailers with heavy expenditures on advertisement will charge high margins from consumers.

g)   Online prices are elastic. ( i.e. immune to change up and down with demand)

I agree with the statement as retailers change prices up or down in order to match prices with competitors, in order to attract more customers they will charge prices down and will offer discount deals and if demand for goods is reduced they will lower their prices.

h)   Online prices are generally transparent (the extent to which prices for a given product or service are known by buyers in the marketplace.).

I agree that prices are generally transparent , as the search cost is lower it enables consumers to be well informed about the prices being offered by different retailors.

Question 3

a)   What types of m-commerce services does your cell phone provider offer?

I use iPhone and it offers below mCommerce services

ü  Shopping online

ü  Banking transactions

ü  Payment of insurance charges and premiums

ü  Funds transfer

ü  Payment of utility bills

ü  Online tickets booking and buying

ü  Wireless advertising

ü  Location-based services

ü  Games and entertainment

b)   Which of these services do you use?

I use the services of online shopping, I reserve online cinema tickets and also purchase airline tickets, I frequently check for my online bank statement and transfer funds through my bank application. I also use Google latitude (location based services) and games.

c)    What types of transactions do you perform through your cell phone or other wireless device?

·         I transfer funds to my siblings

·         I make online payment of utility bills

·         I make payment online for the goods I purchase

·         I purchase online tickets

·         I reserve appointment to my doctor and make payment of consultation fee

·         I make in app purchases of the games and utility applications

·         I make online payment of my exams fee

d)   What types of transactions would you like to perform, but are currently unable to?

I would like to use my cell phone as ATM machine as sometimes I need cash so urgent that I feel it difficult to go to nearby ATM and withdraw cash.

e)    What is your opinion of wireless advertising/mobile marketing?

In my opinion wireless advertising/mobile marketing is the most effective tool of marketing as mobile is kind of device with which everyone keeps in touch all the time that is why it can target a wide range of viewers, but I feel it very much annoying that while playing games or surfing the net we click on some desired thing and it takes us to the link of advertisement in which I am not interested at all, some pop up advertisements are also very annoying sometimes.

Chris Anderson, the editor of Wired Magazine, wrote a book called ‘The Long Tail’. Anderson’s theory of ‘The Long Tail’ has been widely acclaimed, but there has also been recent research which questions its veracity. Conduct your own research about ‘The Long Tail’, and state your opinion in favor or against the theory. It is also worth reading about Pareto’s Principle, the 80/20 Rule. How do the two relate to each other?

According to Chris Anderson,

The theory of the Long Tail is that our culture and economy is increasingly shifting away from a focus on a relatively small number of "hits" (mainstream products and markets) at the head of the demand curve and toward a huge number of niches in the tail. As the costs of production and distribution fall, especially online, there is now less need to lump products and consumers into one-size-fits-all containers. In an era without the constraints of physical shelf space and other bottlenecks of distribution, narrowly-targeted goods and services can be as economically attractive as mainstream fare.

(http://www.longtail.com/about.html)

Opinion in favor or against.

Many researchers have given researches in favor of and against the tail theory as in support of this theory, recent study by Erik Brynjolfsson, Yu (Jeffrey) Hu, and Michael D. Smith finds that the long tail has grown longer over time, with niche books accounting for a larger share of total sales. I agree with their analysis as according to their analysis by 2008, niche books accounted for 36.7% of Amazon's sales while the consumer surplus generated by niche books has increased at least fivefold from 2000 to 2008. Pareto’s 80/20 rule is also the support of long tail theory which I have detailed lateron.

As contrary to support there are also criticisms on the Long Tail as a 2008 study by Anita Elberse, professor of business administration at Harvard Business School, calls the long tail theory into question, citing sales data which shows that the Web magnifies the importance of blockbuster hits. Elberse defined head and tail using percentages, while Anderson uses absolute numbers. Similar results were published by Serguei Netessine and Tom F. Tan, who suggest that head and tail should be defined by percentages rather than absolute numbers.

Relevance with 80/20 rule

The principle of 80/20 was suggested by management thinker Joseph M. Juran. It was named after the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto, who observed that 80% of income in Italy was received by 20% of the Italian population. The assumption is that most of the results in any situation are determined by a small number of causes.

Relating it with the Tail theory in my opinion as almost 80 % of the income is held by 20% people, so the unique and costly goods required by them can be of more profitability for the sellers as sellers can earn more margins on the prices of these niche goods.

Topic 5: Business Models.

1-Describe the features of each of these business models giving an example of each.

·      Brokerage:

A brokerage is a financial institution that facilitates the buying and selling of financial securities between a buyer and a seller.

Features

Ø  Brokerage firms trade public stocks and other securities, usually through the firm's agent stockbrokers.

Ø  The staff brokerage researches the markets to provide appropriate recommendations and direct the actions of pension fund managers and portfolio managers.

Ø  These firms also offer margin loans for certain approved clients to purchase investments on credit, subject to agreed terms and conditions.

Ø  Traditional brokerage firms have also become a source of up-to-date stock prices and quotes.

Examples:

Different Brokerage models vise examples are given below as outlined by Michal Rappa in his digital enterprise resources.

                             

Model                                                         Examples

·         Marketplace Exchange                      Orbitz, ChemConnect

·         Buy/Sell Fulfillment                          CarsDirect, Respond.com

·         Demand Collection System               Priceline.com

·         Auction Broker --                             eBay

·         Transaction Broke                            PayPal, Escrow.com

·         Virtual Marketplace                        zShops and Merchant Services at Amazon.com

·      Advertising:

Features

Advertising is a form of marketing communication used to encourage, persuade, or manipulate an audience (viewers, readers or listeners; sometimes a specific group) to take or continue to take some action. Sites that rely on advertising, sell advertisements against their traffic. In basic terms: the more traffic you have, the more you can charge for ads. A web site, provides content (usually, but not necessarily, for free) and services (like email, IM, blogs) mixed with advertising messages in the form of banner ads. The banner ads may be the major or sole source of revenue for the broadcaster.

Examples:

Examples of advertisement business model include paid placements done by sites like Google, Yahoo etc. Other examples includes placement of search links within various kinds of websites, portals ,classifieds, user registrations, intromercials and ultramercials

·      Infomediary:

The term infomediary is a contraction of "information intermediary. An infomediary works as a personal agent on behalf of consumers to help them take control over information gathered about them for use by marketers and advertisers.

Features

Ø  The most important characteristic of the infomediary model is the capture and sharing of information

Ø  Infomediaries operate on the assumption that personal information is the property of the individual described, not necessarily the property of the one who gathers it.

Ø  Infomediary seeks to act as a trusted agent, providing the opportunity and means for clients to monetize and profit from their own information profiles

Examples:

One of the first focused implementations of the infomediary concept was an online advertising company called AllAdvantage launched in 1999. While that company did not survive, in more recent years there has been renewed interest in the infomediary concept, with entrepreneurs and investors building companies to identify and leverage the market value of consumers' information.
Michal Rappa determined examples of Infomediaries which are as given below,

Advertising Networks                                    example DoubleClick

Audience Measurement Services                   example   Nielsen//Netratings

Incentive Marketing                                       example Coolsavings

Metamediary                                                   example Edmunds

·      Merchant:

The Merchant business model is used by retailers and wholesalers. In simple words merchants buy goods, and sell them with profit.in web based business models this model will include merchants selling digital products like iTunes. Types of merchant model along with their examples as outlined by Michal Rappa are as stated below,

Model	Description	Example
Virtual Merchant	Retail merchant that operates solely over the web	Amazon.com
Catalog Merchant	Mail-order business with a web-based catalog	Lands' End
Click and Mortar	Traditional brick-and-mortar retail establishment with web storefront	Barnes & Noble
Bit Vendor	Deals strictly in digital products and services and, in its purest form	Apple iTunes Music Store

·      Manufacturer (Direct):

Features

Manufacturer direct model operates on the bases that by eliminating third party intermediaries like distributors and wholesalers, consumers are supposed to benefit with lower prices and increased satisfaction of the consumers in dealing directly with manufacturers. This model characterizes efficiency, improved customer service, and a better understanding of customer preferences.

Examples:

Dell Computer is the example other examples include Example is flowerbud.com the company which sold flowers directly online.

·      Affiliate:

Affiliate is Electronic commerce business model that enables a firm to generate revenue streams on hundreds (even thousands) of items without carrying inventories, managing orders, processing payments, or handling packaging and shipping. In this arrangement, a website concentrates on a relationship with a very specific group of individuals as its core. It develops and continuously upgrades content and services to attract and retain the patronage of this group. Once it has a sizable number of regular visitors, it can generate revenue by carrying ads or links to merchants with products that its visitors seek or are interested in.

http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/affiliate-model.html#ixzz2yZLUsnlJ

Examples:

Many software vendors operate affiliate marketing schemes, eg. online backup vendors Mozy and Carbonite. Amazon also operates an extensive affiliate program, allowing website owners to earn commission for referrals on books and other products.

There are a number of affiliate portals, such as Clickbank, Commission Junction and Kolimbo which exist to create links between vendors and potential affiliates.

http://www.sqa.org.uk/e-learning/ECIntro01CD/page_14.html

·      Community:

Features

In community model an online presence is developed and several individuals or groups are encouraged to join and participate in ongoing interaction designed around a common purpose. This model is based on consumer loyalty revenue is generated by selling ancillary products and services or voluntary contributions.

Examples:

Public broadcasting (Google, Wikipedia) and social networking services (Facebook, Flicker) are the examples of community model.

·      Subscription:

Features:

This is the model in which users are charged a periodic, daily, monthly or annual, fee to subscribe to a service. Subscription fees are incurred irrespective of actual usage rates. Subscription and advertising models are frequently combined.

Examples:

Examples include different magazines and newspapers subscribing to send periodic newsletters etc. American online, class mates etc.

·      Utility.

Features:

The utility model is a "pay-as-you-go" service provider that charges based upon metered usage. It takes its name from the utility services, such as water and electricity, which have traditionally used this metered charge style. In some countries, ISPs are still billed as a metered service, with rates varying as usage increases or decreases. In a slight variation, some Internet businesses, among them Slashdot, operate as subscription utilities. In this utility variation, subscribers are charged a fee based upon number of website content pages viewed.

Examples:

Internet service providers are the example of utility model. Other examples include metered subscription like charges per page view.

2-Study Global Technology report and answer the following:

1) What is the Mobile phone use /100 population - compare Australia, USA, China, India, Your Country

     
Comparison is as shown below,

Country	Mobile Phone use/100 Population,	Rank/142
Australia	108.3/100	67
USA	92.7/100	95
China	73.2/100	115
India	72/100	117

2) Internet use / 100 population- compare Australia, USA, China, India, Your Country

Country	Internet use,%	Rank/142
Australia	79	18
USA	77.9	20
China	38.3	74
India	10.1	119

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GITR_Report_2013.pdf

3) Compare main strengths and weaknesses of Australia or your home country in the survey

Strengths of Australia:

·         Australia has effective law making bodies it ranks 18 among 144 nations and score of its effectiveness of law making bodies is 4.9 which is above median.

·         Australia has good business and innovation environment to support ICT as it ranks 19 in availability of latest technologies quality of management schools is also good.

·         Australia has secure internet servers

·         Australia ranks well among 144 nations in 5^th pillar of skills it ranks 1^st in secondary education gross enrollment rate.

·         Australia has availability of knowledge intensive jobs(rank 12 /144)

·         Australia’s Government services are also available online.(rank 9/144)

·         E-participation index

·         99% adult literacy rate

Weaknesses of Australia:

·         Affordability, 4th pillar, high tariffs

·         High software piracy rate

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GITR_Report_2013.pdf

4) What does the survey suggest to you about the Information Technology readiness of Australian business compared to Australian consumers?

Australia is well developed country according to Networked readiness index detail firm level technology absorption rate is of near best level business to business and business to consumer internet usage index is also well staff is also trained well as its index is 4.6 which is also above median. On the other hand individuals are also free to use internet personal computers and households also have access of internet. Individuals also use virtual social network frequently.

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GITR_Report_2013.pdf